A newly released report from the Government Accountability Office urges NASA to work toward lowering costs for its lunar ambitions.
The development of NASA’s Space Launch Systems (SLS) mega-rocket began in November 2011, with a target date of 2016, as NASA aimed to put astronauts back on the moon.
The development of the SLS was the centerpiece of the Artemis Program, which aims to send astronauts back to the moon and one step closer to Mars by the end of the 2020s.
All along, NASA’s cost estimates have been very optimistic at each stage of the SLS’s development, with NASA deciding some time ago to monitor costs via the five-year production and operations cost estimate.
However, the GAO, in their report says these are poor tools to control costs, and NASA hasn’t even been consistent about updating the five-year estimates.
To date, NASA has spent $11.8 billion developing the SLS. The 2024 budget proposal includes another $11.2 billion to see the program through 2028.
In May this year, a 56-page analysis by NASA’s independent inspector general said “significant cost overruns and delays” could jeopardize the space agency’s lunar program as funds run low.” It was estimated the Space Launch System’s booster and engine are now projected to cost at least $13.1 billion over 25 years.
And the GAO, in submitting its report to the Congressional committees that have jurisdiction over NASA’s budget was quite explicit in saying that “Senior NASA officials told GAO that at current cost levels, the SLS program is unaffordable.”
As it currently stands, Artemis II is on the books for late 2024, and the Artemis III moon landing follows in 2025. However, the GAO projects that Artemis II will launch no earlier than 2025, and Artemis III will be lucky to get off the ground in 2026.
The version of the SLS we have now isn’t even the final one. NASA hopes to move from the Block 1 design to more powerful Block 1B and Block 2 setups starting in Artemis IV and IX, respectively.
The GAO report does not attempt to estimate the cost of these design updates but notes that the creation of new components like the Exploration Upper Stage could be too expensive to fund.
