The development of NASA’s Space Launch Systems (SLS) mega-rocket began in November 2011, with a target date of 2016, as NASA aimed to put astronauts back on the moon.

The development of the SLS was the centerpiece of the Artemis Program, which aims to send astronauts back to the moon and one step closer to Mars by the end of the 2020s.

All along, NASA’s cost estimates have been very optimistic at each stage of the SLS’s development, with NASA deciding some time ago to monitor costs via the five-year production and operations cost estimate.

However, the GAO, in their report says these are poor tools to control costs, and NASA hasn’t even been consistent about updating the five-year estimates.

To date, NASA has spent $11.8 billion developing the SLS. The 2024 budget proposal includes another $11.2 billion to see the program through 2028.

In May this year, a 56-page analysis by NASA’s independent inspector general said “significant cost overruns and delays” could jeopardize the space agency’s lunar program as funds run low.” It was estimated the Space Launch System’s booster and engine are now projected to cost at least $13.1 billion over 25 years.

And the GAO, in submitting its report to the Congressional committees that have jurisdiction over NASA’s budget was quite explicit in saying that “Senior NASA officials told GAO that at current cost levels, the SLS program is unaffordable.”

As it currently stands, Artemis II is on the books for late 2024, and the Artemis III moon landing follows in 2025. However, the GAO projects that Artemis II will launch no earlier than 2025, and Artemis III will be lucky to get off the ground in 2026.

The version of the SLS we have now isn’t even the final one. NASA hopes to move from the Block 1 design to more powerful Block 1B and Block 2 setups starting in Artemis IV and IX, respectively.

The GAO report does not attempt to estimate the cost of these design updates but notes that the creation of new components like the Exploration Upper Stage could be too expensive to fund.

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At the 5:00 p.m. EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Lee was 600 miles (970 kilometers south of Bermuda, moving to the west-northwest at 7 mph (11 kph). Lee has maximum sustained winds of 115 mph (185 kph).

A slow west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north by midweek. On the forecast track,
Lee is expected to pass near, but to the west, of Bermuda in a few days.

Lee is a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and little change in strength is expected in the next few days. However, the storm’s eye has redeveloped, and is well-defined, while its structure is looking more symmetrical. This is an indication that Lee is determined to become at least a Category 4 storm. 

Actually, that is in fact, what the NHC is forecasting now. Lee will most definitely gather fuel from the very warm waters that currently lie ahead. The ocean temperature Lee is passing over is a balmy 30 degrees Celsius or 86 degrees Fahrenheit.

By midweek, Lee will be rounding the southwest side of a large ridge of high pressure in the North Atlantic and will begin to feel the influence of an upper trough over eastern North America.

Forecast models are in agreement

Most forecast models are now in agreement that as Lee is influenced by the upper-level trough over eastern North America, plus the added energy derived from the warm Atlantic waters will cause a fairly sharp northward turn around Wednesday and a gradual northward acceleration through the rest of the week.

The final solutions of the two most prominent models, the GFS and European, both have consistently shown Lee not making a landfall in the U.S. but heading to the Canadian Maritimes instead.

According to Yale Climate Connections, there is sustained and increasing agreement among models that Lee will pass to the west of Bermuda (which NHC gave a 43 percent chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds) and head toward Atlantic Canada – most likely Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

However, the track could still veer far enough west to reach New England, or far enough east to make an initial landfall in Newfoundland.

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Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, speaking to parliament on Monday, according to Bloomberg, said the government will develop an export ban policy “to prevent exploitation and loss of resources, thereby guaranteeing maximum returns for the country.”

Anwar further added that the new policy would help drive development of the mineral industry, but didn’t say when a ban would come into effect.

Malaysia joins a growing list of countries looking to diversify away from China, the world’s largest producer of the critical rare earth minerals that are used widely in semiconductor chips, electric vehicles, and military equipment, The Straits Times is reporting.

Data from the U.S. Geological Survey in 2019 showed that China is the biggest source of rare earth minerals, with an estimated 44 million tonnes of reserves, while Malaysia’s reserves are estimated at around 30,000 tonnes.

Reuters is reporting the rare earth industry is expected to contribute as much as 9.5 billion ringgit ($2 billion) to the country’s gross domestic product in 2025 and create nearly 7,000 job opportunities, Anwar said in parliament.

“Detailed mapping of rare earth element sources and a comprehensive business model that combines upstream, midstream and downstream industries will be developed to maintain the rare earth value chain in the country,” he said.

Surprisingly, Malaysia’s ban could affect sales to China, which imported about 8 percent of its rare earth ores from the Southeast Asian country between January and July this year, according to China customs data.

Analyst David Merriman at Project Blue said the impact of a Malaysian ban was not immediately clear due to a lack of details, but a ban on rare earth ore could affect Chinese companies operating in Malaysia.

“The legislation could have some negative impacts on potential investment in Malaysia from Chinese parties, which have looked to other Asian nations to source unprocessed or mixed rare earth compounds as feedstock for (rare earth) processing facilities in southern China,” Merriman said.

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The three companies, Ford Motor, General Motors and Stellantis, and the UAW Union have continued to trade wage and benefit counteroffers and will likely continue to do so into the work week ahead of Thursday night’s strike deadline.

However, on Friday, according to the Associated Press, Fain said that the company’s offers weren’t enough and that he had put them in the trash.

So far, the companies have offered to raise pay by 14 percent to 16 percent over four years. Their offers include lump sum payments to help ease the impact of inflation, and policy changes that would lift the pay of recent hires and temporary workers.

But Fain has called the offers “insulting,” pointing out that the three manufacturers have been making near-record profits for almost a decade, and that pay packages of top executives have increased substantially.

According to the New York Times, the 14 to 15 percent pay increase offered by the companies is not even close to the 46 percent raises in general pay over four years the UAW wants — an increase that would elevate a top-scale assembly plant worker from $32 an hour now to about $47.

Fain has argued that the richly profitable automakers can afford to raise workers’ pay significantly to make up for what the union gave up to help the companies withstand the 2007-2009 financial crisis and the Great Recession.

Over the past decade, the Detroit Three have emerged as robust profit-makers. They’ve collectively posted net income of $164 billion, $20 billion of it this year. The CEOs of all three major automakers earn multiple millions in annual compensation.

Political and economic fallout from a strike

All this hoopla is taking place as the country makes a sweeping shift from combustion engine cars and trucks to electric vehicles, which require fewer parts and less labor to produce.

At the center of the wage dispute is President Joe Biden’s signature policies. Biden’s effort to counter climate change and create U.S. manufacturing jobs through hundreds of billions of dollars in clean-energy spending is frustrating the UAW, which is demanding that workers share in the benefits from the government-subsidized shift to electric vehicles.

U.A.W. leaders and members are increasingly worried that the transition will eliminate jobs and, over time, reduce wages and benefits.

“We aren’t going to stand by and allow them to drag out the negotiations like they’ve done in the past,” Mr. Fain said Friday in a video on Facebook. “If we hit 11:59 on Thursday without a deal at any of the Big Three automakers, there will be a strike — at all three if need be.”

But to make matters even worse – the autoworkers strike could also coincide with a federal government shutdown if Congress cannot reach a stopgap spending deal by Sept. 30, according to Politico.

The economic fallout could be tremendous. The auto industry accounts for about 3 percent of the U.S. economy’s gross domestic product — its total output of goods and services — and the Detroit automakers represent about half of the total U.S. car market.

While UAW strikers would receive $500 a week in strike pay, it is far less than they would make working. But for the Big Three, a 10-day strike against all three companies could cost them nearly one billion dollars,

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, National Association of Manufacturers, and Motor Equipment and Manufacturers Association, as well as GM, Ford and Stellantis, have either briefed the White House on their point of view or are planning to in the days ahead.

Business officials have shared an analysis with the White House that suggested that 50 percent of suppliers would go bankrupt within two to three weeks of a strike — affecting approximately 345,000 workers.

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As of Saturday morning, Hurricane Lee is a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely over the
next few days, however, Lee is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through early next week.

But Even as a Category 3 hurricane, Lee has left the experts astounded at its speed of intensification, literally rewriting all the rules meteorologists have used in defining the strength and overall power of hurricanes.

Lee is giving us a preview of things to come as our oceans continue to heat up, spawning fast-growing major hurricanes that could threaten communities farther north and farther inland, experts say, according to the Associated Press.

“Hurricanes are getting stronger at higher latitudes,” said Marshall Shepherd, director of the University of Georgia’s Atmospheric Sciences Program and a past president of the American Meteorological Society. “If that trend continues, that brings into play places like Washington, D.C., New York and Boston.”

As the oceans warm, they act as jet fuel for hurricanes. “That extra heat comes back to manifest itself at some point, and one of the ways it does is through stronger hurricanes,” Shepherd said.

Meteorologists have a standard for defining rapid intensification with hurricanes – defined as when a hurricane’s sustained winds increase by 35 mph (56 kph) in 24 hours.

“This one increased by 80 mph (129 kph),” Shepherd said. “I can’t emphasize this enough — we used to have this metric of 35 mph, and here’s a storm that did twice that amount and we’re seeing that happen more frequently,” said Shepherd, who describes what happened with Lee as “hyper-intensification.”

Lee was 385 miles (620 kilometers) east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands as of 5 a.m. EDT Saturday, whipping up maximum sustained winds of 115 mph (185 KPH), according to the National Hurricane Center.

And because this hurricane isn’t exactly playing by the rules, it is expected to re-strengthen over the weekend and remain strong into the middle of next week.

Category 5 status is becoming more common

Only about 4.5 percent of named storms in the Atlantic Ocean have grown to a Category 5 in the past decade, said Brian McNoldy, a scientist and hurricane researcher at the University of Miami.

So Lee is in what used to be considered rare company. Reaching Category 5 strength has become more common over the last decade, CNN News is reporting. Lee is the 8th Category 5 since 2016, meaning 20 percent of these exceptionally powerful hurricanes on record in NOAA’s hurricane database have come in the last seven years.

The Atlantic is not the only ocean to have spawned a monster storm in 2023. All seven ocean basins where tropical cyclones can form have had a storm reach Category 5 strength so far this year, including Hurricane Jova, which reached Category 5 status in the eastern Pacific earlier this week.

Inside the eye of Hurricane Lee

A scary video has been posted by the U.S. Air Force Reserve’s 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron in Biloxi, Mississippi, known as the “Hurricane Hunters,” reports Space.com. It was published by the U.S. Department of Defense.

The rare look directly into the eye of a hurricane was made possible by the Hurricane Hunters. According to an Air Force fact sheet, the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron is the “only operational unit in the world flying weather reconnaissance on a routine basis.”

The squadron flies a specialized WC-130J Hercules aircraft. It’s equipped with specialized meteorological sensors including dropsondes, instruments that are dropped directly through storms in order to create a top-to-bottom profile of wind, temperature, and pressure. The aircraft can stay in the air for nearly 18 hours, allowing crews to collect weather data over extended periods.

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At the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Lee was about 565 miles (910 kilometers) east of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving to the west-northwest at 13 mph (20 kph).

This motion is expected to continue through early next week with a significant
decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend and into early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). WPBF.com is reporting that the NHC says Lee is forecast to become one of the strongest hurricanes on record, with winds possibly reaching 180 mph.

According to the National Hurricane Center, rip currents and hazardous surf will spread across the northern Caribbean on Friday and begin affecting the mainland United States by Sunday.

Tracking Hurricane Lee

Lee will likely reach its peak intensity by this weekend and is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic early next week, though it’s too soon to know whether this system will directly impact the US mainland.

Computer model trends for Lee have shown the hurricane taking a turn to the north early next week. But exactly when that turn occurs and how far west Lee will manage to track by then will play a huge role in how close it gets to the US.

Keep in mind there are a few steering factors that could come into play that will determine how close Lee will get to the East Coast of the U.S.

First, we have the Bermuda High. It’s an area of high pressure over the Atlantic, and it will have a major influence on how quickly Lee turns.

The Bermuda Hi9gh is expected to remain strong over the weekend, and this will keep Lee on its current west-northwestward track and slow it down a bit. Only when this high-pressure system starts to weaken next week will Lee begin its turn to the north.

Once that turn to a northward direction takes place, we have to pay close attention to the Jet Stream. Depending on the position of the Jet Stream, strong upper-level winds can possibly change the direction of the hurricane’s path – which will influence how closely Lee is steered to the US.

Another scenario has Hurricane Lee making a quick turn to the north early next week if high pressure weakens significantly, and the Jet Stream sets up along the East Coast, it will act as a barrier that prevents Lee from approaching the coast.

This would keep Lee away from the U.S. coast and bring it closer to Bermuda. There are several other scenarios, and they are all dependent on other weather conditions, so it really is not an easy call to make.

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According to numbers released by Natural Resources Canada on Thursday, as of Sept. 6, there are 1,052 wildfires raging across Canada, with 791 designated as out-of-control. This year, there have been 6,174 fires throughout the country, two of which have exceeded one million hectares, reports CTV News Canada.

Canada is enduring its worst wildfire season on record, with over 166,000 square kilometers (64,000 square miles), or an area equivalent to four Switzerlands, of land already burned.

Warm and dry conditions in September could ignite additional wildfires, and there is a possibility that some of the blazes could remain active through the winter season, Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said on Thursday, Reuters is reporting.

Nearly all 13 Canadian provinces and territories have experienced wildfires this year, forcing home evacuations, disrupting energy production, and drawing in federal, as well as international firefighting resources.

Wilkinson pointed out in the teleconference that even though wildfires in Canada are not uncommon, climate change was amplifying their frequency and intensity. “The science is clear: The root cause of this is climate change,” Wilkinson said.

Wilkinson also announced new funding for B.C. and N.W.T. to fight wildfires. “In the last few days we have finalized agreements with both British Columbia and with Northwest Territories, through which B.C. will receive $32 million and over $28 million will be provided to Northwest Territories over the next five years. This federal funding will be supplemented by provincial and territorial contributions,” he said.

Forecast maps from Natural Resources Canada were shared with reporters on Thursday, Global News is reporting, and the maps show Manitoba is likely to see the most intense fire activity in September, with Saskatchewan, Eastern Alberta, and Western Ontario also likely to see “above-average” fire activity.

Wilkinson also said Natural Resources Canada is making $256 million available over five years to provinces and territories to procure lifesaving wildland firefighting equipment and essential personnel.

“To date, Alberta. British Columbia. Nova Scotia. Saskatchewan, Northwest Territories, and Yukon have access to this fund this year, and we expect all jurisdictions to participate next year.”

Wildfires have left behind some disheartening statistics, including an estimated 1.7 billion tonnes of CO2 emitted so far this year. The cost of fighting the wildfires has also been immense. Natural Resources Canada said the biggest area of cost is the effort that goes into fire suppression, which is going to be “significant” this year according to experts.

B.C., Alberta, N.W.T, and Saskatchewan are the only jurisdictions that have shared the cost of fire suppression in the year so far. The cost of fire suppression in these four jurisdictions amounts to around $1.4 billion.

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As of the 5 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Hurricane Lee was about 780 miles (1,260 kilometers) east of the Leeward Islands, which are in the northeastern Caribbean, and it was moving west-northwest at 15 miles per hour (24 kph).

The hurricane will continue moving in this direction for the next several days while
gradually slowing down its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of Lee will move north of the northern Leeward Islands during the next several days.

Dangerous surf conditions generated by the storm are likely to affect the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda over the weekend, according to the Hurricane Center, reports the New York Times.

Rip currents and dangerous surf will spread across the northern Caribbean on Friday and begin affecting the United States on Sunday, the center said.

Tracking Hurricane Lee

At this point in time, Lee will be experiencing even more rapid intensification because the forecast track takes Lee across some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic Ocean and through relatively calm upper-level winds – ripe conditions for a hurricane to grow more fierce.

Lee’s winds are expected to peak at 160 mph, or Category 5-strength, Friday night as it approaches the eastern Caribbean and is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic early next week.

The hurricane center said “Fluctuations in intensity are expected after that, but Lee is forecast to remain a powerful major hurricane well into next week.”

Long-range forecasts suggest Lee will likely curve north next week before reaching Florida. Potential impacts from Lee along the rest of the U.S. East Coast remain uncertain.

Right now, all major hurricane models that meteorologists use to forecast storms indicate that Lee will curve away from Florida. Looking even further ahead, the latest forecasts suggest Lee’s path could vary across a wide swath spanning from the U.S. East Coast northward to eastern Canada, or skirt away from the coast entirely.

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According to Courthouse News Service, the environmental groups filed a lawsuit on Wednesday, asking that the court step in and force the state to limit the upstream diversion of water that otherwise would flow into the Great Salt Lake, which they say faces a complete ecosystem collapse.

The lawsuit comes about a year after nearly three dozen scientists and conservationists sounded the alarm that North America’s largest terminal lake is facing “unprecedented danger,” and that unless Utah lawmakers fast-tracked “emergency measures” to dramatically increase the lake’s inflow by 2024, it would likely disappear in the next five years.

The Houston Chronicle called the report a “damning” white paper, with scientists from Utah State University, detailing how the Great Salt Lake has been harmed by human intervention since the 19th century.

The lake first hit a record low in the summer of 2021, fueling renewed attention from Utah’s Republican-led Legislature. But lawmakers’ actions have not been enough to assuage the concerns of a coalition that includes Earthjustice, the Utah Rivers Council and Utah Physicians for a Healthy Environment, among others.

The thing is – there is a lot more to consider than just the Great Salt Lake drying up. It is more than beached sailboats and wider shores. It also includes species extinction and toxic dust clouds billowing over nearby communities, the lawsuit says, according to the Associated Press.

State officials have repeatedly identified restoring the lake as a top priority. But despite a temporary rise in lake levels this summer after a record winter snowfall, the lake’s long-term outlook is bleak. Earlier this year, Republican Gov. Spencer Cox created and filled the position of Great Salt Lake commissioner in an effort to find solutions.

“But the state has not done anything to resolve the fundamental problem here, which is those excessive (water) diversions” away from the lake, Stu Gillespie, a senior attorney for Earthjustice told CNN. “So, the long-term outlook is still the same dire predictions about ecological collapse and public health crisis.”

According to the complaint, officials have continued to allow around 74 percent of upstream water to be diverted to farmers to irrigate alfalfa, hay, and other crops, with a small part of the water being used for lawns and other decorative plants.

If the lake continues to dry up, the economic toll would range from $1.7 billion to $2.2 billion each year, according to a state assessment.

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According to a 5 p.m. EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Lee was located about 1,130 miles (1815 kilometers) east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Lee’s present movement is to the west-northwest at 14 mph (22 kph), packing sustained winds of 75 mph (120 kph). This motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a slight reduction in forward speed over the weekend.

Even more rapid intensification – defined as an increase in wind speeds of at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less – is expected in the coming days. The forecast track takes the hurricane across some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic Ocean and through relatively calm upper-level winds, which will allow Lee to explode in strength.

“All the ingredients are in place for the storm to really intensify,” Jason Dunion, Director of NOAA’s Hurricane Field Program, told CNN.

By Friday night, Lee is expected to be a monstrous Category 4 hurricane with sustained wind speeds of 150 mph.

According to the New York Times, Lee is the 12th named storm to form in the Atlantic in 2023. In late May this year, NOAA predicted that there would be 12 to 17 named storms this year, a “near-normal” amount. 

By August 10, NOAA officials had revised their prediction upward, expecting there to be 14 to 21 named storms, six to 11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes. “There is a doubling of the chance of a hurricane making landfall on the East Coast of the U.S.,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Lee’s potential path is still iffy

Lee’s strength will ultimately dictate the intensity and reach of the cyclone’s impacts. Lee will start to impact the Lesser Antilles. Lee should reach the longitude of the Lesser Antilles by this weekend as an intense hurricane.

But really, it is just far too soon to tell what land areas this hurricane may threaten next week. Lee’s center is forecast by most all computer models to pass well north of the northern Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this weekend, reports Weather.com.

A combination of factors will determine where Hurricane Lee eventually goes next week. T​hat includes how strong and expansive the Bermuda-Azores high is at the time. This acts as a steering wheel for hurricanes in the tropics.

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